Analyzing The Detroit Lions Key Positions On Defense | Draft Upgrades

The Lions Draft Capital | Unique Options | Trade Back

The Lions are slotted to take 5 players within the top 81 picks in the 2023 draft.  Based on the Lions current needs, position grades, value, and draft pick slots the Lions can add some major pieces to help this defense climb to a respectable position in the top 16 this season. I would expect the Lions to be players in a trade back scenario in round one and moving up to get back into the 3rd or 4th round this draft if a round one trade doesn’t happen.  The Lions are picking unique spots that offer a huge reach potential for the positions we have identified as most important. The hope is a 1st round trade back nets the Lions a 1st round swap, adding a 2nd & 4th round pick in 2023 and potentially another pick in 2024. 

Rocked On Picks

The trade partners we have identified are; Houston (12), Tennessee (11) or Washington (16) moving up to #6 to select a QB or Jalen Carter, and the Eagles (28) or Saints (29) moving up to #18. Let’s dive in here and go over my top prospects for the Detroit Lions in order from most flaring need to least. 

Defensive Line | Tackle

This draft is heavy on edge defenders and light on defensive tackles. The Lions are missing a road grader that can push the pocket and stop the run, finishing almost dead last in all categories on defense in 2022. In my opinion Buggs is a solid backup, with McNeill benefiting highly from adding a topflight talent alongside him.  Levi can play both inside and out, has yet to show us anything and is more than likely to be an injury liability given his spine condition. Jones & Taylor are capable of 3rd & 4th string backups at this point.  If the Lions add a dominant defensive tackle to push McNeill & Buggs, create disruption and allow the role players to succeed off the edge, this defense will instantly get better.  Brad Holmes wants to upgrade wherever he can, and this should be high on the list. 

With the Jalen Carter issues off the field, I don’t see the Lions adding a potential disruption to the locker room.  Should the Lions end up selecting Carter, then they know something that we don’t, which is the case every draft. Carter missed more than 25% of defensive snaps in both 2022 & 2021.  His pro day was a mess and just by watching him perform he was not ready or committed to the process, which is my biggest factor in not selecting Carter in the 1st round.

Rocked On Picks

Passing on Carter, the Lions would be in great shape if they were able to trade back pick 18 to stay in the 1st round.  Mazi Smith is my pick for the Lions in the 1st round. He was the top player on Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List” in 2022. Smith blends phenomenal size and power with impressive athleticism and quickness. In my opinion, Smith is going to be the best DT out of this draft class when we look back from 2024 and beyond. Smith is a can’t miss prospect that I am OK reaching for at 18 should the Lions not find a way to drop back and stay within pick 27.  I see Smith going off the board between pick 26-32.  

Calijah Kancey is a gadget guy or swiss army knife type of player, but he does not possess the size and strength needed to anchor this defensive front against the run game.  I do see Kancey being successful in the right scheme and alongside the right anchor on a defense. The 6-foot, 280-pound defensive tackle led all interior defenders with a 92.4 pass-rushing grade this past fall.

If the Lions were to wait till pick 81 to address this position, my pick is Kobie Turner, out of Wake Forest. Turner had the highest PFF grades of any DT in the class. Posting a 93.1 run-defense grade and an 88.8 pass-rushing grade. Against scoop and combo blocks, Turner attacks, and gets hands on instantly to help free up linebackers. Has a solid base to avoid losing too much ground.

Lastly, my dark horse pick in the late 3rd round is Gervon Dexter with Byron Young running a close 2nd here. He is a bit unrefined and raw, but his tape does not disappoint.  He has explosive off and range to close quickly on running backs and QB pressure. I see Gervon being a project initially, but once he gets established, he may be one that is graded much higher when we look back in 2025. 

Cornerback 

One of the biggest letdowns of the 2022 season was the inconsistent and poor play from the DB room.  Injuries didn’t help and not having a lockdown corner playing good ball was clearly an issue.  I have the Lions need high here as the team has two (2) cornerbacks signed past the 2023 season (Cam Sutton & Chase Lucas). Okudha would require the 5th year option picked up or a new deal by 2024. Chase is not topflight talent, yet, or an outside CB1 or CB2 giving the Lions peace of mind with a lockdown corner opposite Sutton in 2024. In my opinion, pick 6 is a bit early for a corner, but the Lions are in a unique situation with 2 picks in the top 18 slots.  Getting the right guy is more important than value, thus making the reach at 6 for a corner less of a concern.  I do feel this is a perfect time to take a DB early, allowing the rookie to train under Sutton and not having the pressure of being the day one CB1, which is usually the case.  This draft is loaded with top end talent in the 1st two (2) rounds, taking one at pick 6 is not necessary, but to bring in one of the best prospects means taking one by pick 18. There are no doubts that Holmes will find the right fit after round one (1) if he holds off here. 

Rocked On Picks

I expect the Lions to spring for a corner early, with the best culture fit, continuity & playing style belonging to Devon Witherspoon.  Having that playing experience at Illinois with Kerby Joseph speaks volumes to how fast this rookie can gel with the DB room. Devon possesses elite man coverage skills, shows great understanding of routes with the ability to close quickly and mirror receivers underneath. Very fluid hips and top-end speed to turn and run downfield. Shows good awareness when dropping into zone coverage, and good route recognition with the ability to break quickly and cover a lot of ground.

Statistically, the best-graded press corner in 2022, Devon was a runner up or racked up just about every award known in college football. 

• 1 of 3 finalists for the Thorpe Award, and 1 of 20 semifinalists for the Bednarik Award.  
• The first ever DB to be named a Consensus All-American in Illinois history. 
• Witherspoon was honored for his outstanding gridiron play as an All American First Team for (Walter Camp AFCA, FWAA, Associated Press, Phil Steele, CBS, PFF & Reese’s Senior Bowl – USA Today All-American Second Team). Clearly USA got it wrong, as Witherspoon also ranked as the top defensive back by Big Ten’s-Tatum Woodson and the All-Big-10 first team by coaches & media.
• Per PFF Witherspoon lead the nation in forced incompletions (16) and ranked as the #2 graded CB in the country – overall grade of 91.6, and coverage grade of (92.0). Ranked 6th nationally & 2nd in the B1G with 1.4 passes defended per game, 6th nationally with (17) passes defended, and 4th in the nation based on the NFL passer rating against (24.3).

My second option is Christian Gonzalez, he is super speedy, strong & athletic corner hitting 23.3 mph on the GPS, vertical-jumping 42 inches and power-cleaning 325 pounds. CG tracks the ball well downfield, solid ball skills, including the ability to high-point contested-catch situations. He has been challenged at times against the bigger wide receivers, adding him to the mix he would not have to cover the #1WR role as Cam Sutton would be the CB1 to start, expecting Jeff Okudah to slide to the 4th best option. 

Should the Lions address other needs with the #6 pick, selecting Deonte Banks, Emmanuel Forbes, or Joey Porter at pick 18 is also another option. Lastly, if the Lions hold off on a corner in round one, expect a defensive back to be taken in round two.

The Lions can address a glaring future need by selecting a versatile and flexible option by selecting Brian Branch or  Antonio Johnson. Both have the size, strength, speed, and experience to line up at slot corner and both safety spots. This fits with what many teams are looking for in today’s NFL, and especially matches how Brad Holmes likes to draft, versatility.

Defensive Line | Edge  

The Lions would seem to be deep here already, with seven players signed as defensive ends (Charles Harris, Romeo Okwara, Josh Paschal, Aidan Hutchinson, Julian Okwara, Levi Onwuzurike & John Cominsky). With how the Lions primarily operate the pass rush with the SAM LB & DE positions, this position may not be as needed early and more of a luxury pick.  Romeo Okwara may be a cap casualty giving the Lions an opening to draft a left DE slot. As stated above, Onwuzurike is an unknown commodity right now.  With the likelihood of his injury being aggravated, the Lions may opt to draft an upgrade allowing for freedom on the roster in the event Levi goes down again. 

The edge position is very deep early, leaving the 2nd and 3rd rounds wide open to adding an upgrade to Cominsky or J. Okwara. Adding another topflight talent opposite Aidan Hutchinson is never a bad idea.  For that reason, we could see the Lions shuffle the roster to add an upgrade and filter out the bottom talent in the pool.

Rocked On Picks  

As stated above, if the Lions were to take Nolan Smith, they would be adding a versatile piece that can play up and down on the edge. I don’t see the Lions moving up here, but should Will Anderson slip to pick 6, there is a real possibility the Lions select their next game changer on the edge.  Should the Lions wait to pick 18, there are two names that really stick out here, Myles Murphy and Tyree Wilson. 

Murphy is too freakishly gifted to pass up, racking up 76 pressures over the last 2 seasons at Clemson.  He is a bit raw still and would require some new moves to be installed to help his win rate at the next level.  Wilson is the bigger version of Murphy which makes him an offensive lineman nightmare. His range, size and speed allow for flexibility to play inside and out, racking up 50 pressures alone in 2022. 

Brad Holmes is a huge fan of flex options; I would expect the Lions to not pass up on Wilson should he be there at 18.  It is a reach, but the Lions don’t have another pick till 48, which means all the best options for instant upgrade may be gone. 

Lastly, on day 2, Adetomiwa Adebawore is my dark horse pick and one of the freakishly gifted athletes in NFL Combine history. His 4.49-second 40-yard dash is the fastest ever for a player 280-plus pounds by .16 seconds. That kind of explosiveness is worth pick 48. He gets his hands up quickly against the run, with strength & physicality at the point of attack using his upper-body strength to reset the line of scrimmage.

Linebacker 

The Lions had a very rough season at the linebacker position in 2022.  Statistically speaking the linebackers were some of the worst rated in the league. Malcolm Rodriguez was the bright spot and graded out the best overall for the Lions linebackers in 2022.  

The Lions do not have backups behind Anzalone (MLB) or Rodriguez (WLB), but both can play MLB position.  Rodriguez is currently holding down the WLB position but lacks pass rush skills and overall, the Lions suffered against the run.  Rodriguez played well during his rookie campaign, often being Kevin Sheppard’s favorite, evident during the Hard Knocks series. The Lions could use a major upgrade at the OLB positions, building better depth and finding a run stopper and pass rushing specialist with speed and coverage ability. 

Houston is the starter at the SAM, entering his final contract year with the Lions, something that will need to be addressed should Houston have another stellar season.  Backing up Houston the Lions have Derek Barnes and Anthony Pittman, not what we would consider the best option for a starter should the Lions suffer injury or not retain Houston in 2024. Should the Lions slide Rodrigo over to MLB and utilized more as a backup at the WILL position, the Lions could benefit from a dominant WILL linebacker added to this defense.  

Rocked On Picks

I did not give out any 1st round grades on linebackers in this draft based on their true position or expected position at the next level. It doesn’t mean that a linebacker won’t be selected in the 1st round. 

As Brad Holmes has stated in many pressers, he prefers to take the players that best suit the teams culture, identity, scheme fit, and not so much the value or need.  Holmes just wants to get better and upgrade his team, no matter where he’s selecting the player, if that player checks the boxes they have identified. I view the value for any linebacker to be the best late in the 1st round and mid-2nd round on day 2. This is where I expect the Lions to add a playmaker if they target a linebacker.  

As the draft gets closer to pick 18, my favorite option for a reach at OLB is Nolan Smith. He is listed as an edge defender, but played the OLB position for Georgia, where he left us wanting more after he went down with injury in 2022. Smith absolutely crushed the combine, and after watching his tape & interviews appears to be a genuine, humble & hardworking football player.  He fits the culture, his ability in space is special, and his intangibles jump off the chart. His crazy speed and burst give him the ability to play edge and OLB in the right scheme.  A bit concerned over his weight, I fell the Lions pass on Smith in the 1st round at 18.

On day two, the Lions should be able to add a special player by the name of Drew Sanders at pick 48.  Sanders started his college career as an edge rusher at Alabama before transferring to Arkansas and moving to off-ball linebacker. Sanders range and ability shined as he racked up 11 sacks and 39 total pressures as a blitzer in 2022. 

Jack Campbell is my #1 LB in this draft to fit the Lions scheme, fit, need, and culture.  I don’t see where the Lions have an option to take Campbell, unless Campbell slips to 48 or there is movement with the Lions draft slots early moving back off 6 or 18 or up from 48.   Campbell is my over reach selection at pick 18 to the Lions, Campbell just wont make it to pick 48. 

Safety

Walker is only signed through 2024, still recovering from a major Achilles injury.  The speculation is he won’t be ready to go till at least week 2 of the regular season.  With Deshone Elliot leaving via free agency, the Lions are not in the best depth position at safety.  CJ Moore is back and Kerby Joseph is expected to have a much bigger role and breakout season in 2023. Melifonwu has not been reliable to this point, suffering multiple injuries during the start of his career, and just who is Brady Breeze?  The Lions need depth here and another lockdown & versatile safety to step up when needed. 

Rocked On Picks

I expect the Lions to address this position later in the draft on day 2.  If the Lions decided to address this position early, Brian Branch makes the most sense here at pick 18.  Per PFF, he played 624 snaps in 2021, finishing the year with 37 receptions allowed from 382 coverage snaps. This past season was his best, producing an 89.5 PFF grade while allowing 36 receptions from 416 coverage snaps.

Lastly, we could also see the Lions spring for Sydney Brown on day 2 as he has previous experience playing alongside Kerby Joseph at Illinois.  Brad Holmes likes to add value where he can find it, finding a complimentary player with continuity within the DB room is as good as it gets. As stated above, Antonio Johnson is a high value target on day 2 as well.  I would expect that day 2 options mentioned will be gone after pick 48, which means the Lions need to address the need sooner rather than later or move up off pick 48.  Holmes does seem to find gems in the 5th and 6th rounds, but instant impact players are most often not the case past round 2.