Detroit Lions
Holmes Is Good At Leading A Horse To Water, Only To Find An Empty Watering Hole…
Are The Detroit Lions Poised To Draft A QB in 2023?
In February of 2023, Brad Holmes was in Indianapolis for the combine where he ran through the gauntlet of interviews about the status of the Lions offseason and what to expect for free agency and the upcoming draft. As expected, Holmes was as elusive as a big cat in the brush, leaving all of us to wonder what was coming next.
When Brad Holmes sat down with Michael Smith (NFL on NBC), he assured the audience that Jared Goff is the starter, he is their “GUY”. Holmes made sure to point out that he was personally responsible for not surrounding Goff with the weapons needed to be successful in 2021. Stating that the resiliency Goff has embraced and bouncing back in 2022 is nothing short of the elite level Goff has displayed since entering the league in 2016.
Holmes Asked About The Plan For QB, Given The High Draft Picks…
Smith asked Holmes about QB position plan, stating the lions are not desperate for change at the position with Goff at the helm. Smith pointed out the Lions are not expected to draft this high again anytime soon, asking Holmes if taking a QB with the 6th overall pick is an option.
“Going into the season, you know we have Jared, but who’s behind him”, Holmes stated, “we just need to add more to that room, whether it is free agency and the draft.” Holmes also stated that transparent conversations have happened with Jared involving the organizations plans, noting that these are never easy positions for anyone to be in.” – Brad Holmes
“I think it’s a lot easier to get worse at quarterback, uh, than to get better at quarterback, and so, in this league,” “We are never going to turn down a good football player, so, if there’s a football player we love, we are going to make sure every stone is unturned, but, but I do think that Jared has proven to everybody that he is the starting quarterback for us.” – Brad Holmes
That settles it right? Holmes has attended three 3 interviews, in each one verifying Jared Goff as the starter.
The Lions are still lacking quality backups two weeks into free agency. The Lions need backups to learn the system, develop continuity with the offense, help the team get better during camp or practice, and win games in the event Jared goes down. When asked about the importance of drafting a backup or even the eventual replacement, and looking to the future at the position, Holmes said this…
“I feel like last year we kind of left training camp sliding into home plate, trying to fill that backup quarterback role,” admitted Holmes. “And that’s on me. I gotta do a better job of making sure that we’re not in that position again.” – Brad Holmes
Holmes is right, no team should have a swinging door at the backup QB position. A door so wide that seven, Yes (7) different backups entered the locker room in 2022. None of which remain on the depth chart today. When Holmes was asked if he would pass on a major need, and make a luxury pick, he had this to say…
“I think when you’re in those spots, you’re just drafting for need, you can make some mistakes.” “I’m not gonna say we don’t look at that [drafting for need] at all, but when you’re passing up really good football players that can help you and impact your football team, it might not be lined up with the exact anchored ‘hole’ you might have on a depth chart.” Holmes finished off his response by saying the team was going to look for two (2) “really good football players,” who fit the team, and have the capability to “impact the team early.” – Brad Holmes
Given what the Lions were lacking or missing at the time of this statement, we felt those (impact) players would come from the defensive side of the football. The defense was the biggest disappointment early in the 2022 season, especially the defensive backs. It would be a no brainer to think Holmes was going to find impact players to help the Lions get better at all phases, with the defensive backs especially important.
Holmes is not one to mince words or let on to what he intends to do…
It was at the combine that Holmes commented that it is entirely possible that the available free agent quarterbacks may not be ready to sign a contract before the draft. This was not a statement that rang any alarms at first, and seemed more of an accurate assessment of how things work out in the NFL. One would speculate that Holmes planned to address the QB position in free agency, and the draft, as he stated earlier. We will get back to this in a moment.
Addressing The Biggest Need – Free Agent Windfall…
Sticking with the glaring needs of this team, I expected Holmes would be addressing the defensive back position early in the draft, potentially using the #6 overall pick to address the DB room right away. Then came the free agency tampering period, and the free agency rush went just as fast.
Yet, the Lions were once again left without a backup to Goff. Holmes hit free agency heavily at the defensive back position. First came Cam Sutton, followed up by Emmanuel Moseley. It was a foregone conclusion that Holmes would add a veteran DB in free agency, but of course, Holmes one upped us and grabbed two (2) instant upgrades at the position.
After reviewing the new contracts, we felt the Lions would still target a rookie DB early in the draft. After the 2023 season the Lions are fairly depleted at the position with only Cam Sutton & Chase Lucas under contract.
Holmes Strikes Again! Masterful Negotiations
Just as things seemed to quiet down, and during the evening of March 19th, 2023, the internet erupted and a huge free agent signing was on the way to Detroit! How could this happen? The Lions were running thin on cap to sign a big deal, right? Wrong! Enter Holmes, the expert negotiator and Romeo Okwara into the room. With injury concerns looming and a giant cap hit coming due to an underwhelming performer, Romeo agreed to a $9 million pay cut. The result was the Lions inking a game changing safety and slot corner, C.J. Gardner Johnson.
Still Taking A Shut Down Corner In The Draft?
The DB room is about as scary as it has ever been, but the lack of long-term contracts speaks to a longevity issue. Brad Holmes has masterfully assembled one of the deepest and most financially sound rosters that the Lions organization has ever seen. I still expect and feel confident a top DB is selected in the 1st or 2nd round.
Sunday Night, The BULLSH*T Meter Went Off.
I mean that with every ounce of respect and admiration for Brad Holmes. He is leading us all to the empty watering hole and filling us up with sly comments and GM speak. This guy is playing expert level chess, while everyone else is in their diapers playing marbles in the sandbox. It simply occurred to me that Mr. Brad Holmes may have been leading the media & NFL GMs in circles. Holmes put on a clinic at the press conferences and interviews, having us believing quarterback was off the table in the 1st round, or any round.
As I mentioned earlier Holmes stated he was addressing the backup QB role in free agency, AND the draft. He has not addressed it in free agency, so clearly it’s the draft! That earlier statement during the combine was a clear desensitization ploy to make us believe that available free agents may not be ready to sign until after the draft. Get the BULLSH*T meter now?
Holmes has every intent on drafting a QB, and it may be as early as the #6 overall pick! Holmes is set up to take any player he wants without the pressure of addressing immediate need only as the driving factor. After what Holmes has been able to pull off in free agency and contracts, he has zero pressure.
Holmes Will Be Taking A Backup QB In The 2023 NFL Draft
If Holmes views a QB as the right fit, that slips to #6, we expect Holmes to send a shockwave across the entire NFL and Detroit by taking a QB in the 1st round. What it does not mean is that the pick will be pushing Goff to start right away or an immediate replacement.
If Holmes passes on taking a QB in the 1st, the next logical choice is the 3rd round, taking Hendon Hooker at #81. If the Lions don’t address the backup QB with at least 1 free agent ahead of the draft, we could see the Lions taking a 2nd QB in the 6th or 7th round with a trade back gaining a 7th round pick. Should the likes of Max Duggan slip out of the draft completely, we may even see Holmes sign a 3rd QB in the UDFA market.
Why Urgency?
Goff’s contract is up after the 2024 season, and per Holmes, it is Goff’s job to lose, not to win. It only makes sense to find a pair of backups to sit and learn now, and one of those players should be of the caliber to lead this team should it be needed. The Lions need to have someone on this roster each gameday that can step in to win games should Goff go down.
The difference of making the playoffs in 2022 was merely 1-win last season, albeit for a different reason other than quarterback play. Not having a capable QB is just a bad team business decision. One that Brad Holmes promised he would shore up in 2023, and not let happen again.
It also goes without saying that last year 68 quarterbacks started an NFL game. The average injury rate for starting quarterbacks is 10.4%, resulting in missed games. What happened to the 49ers in week 14 and then again in the NFC championship game, is a prime example as to why you need solid backups as the quarterback position. Teams used to carry three (3) on gameday, now most teams carry only two (2). This was a big reason the Lions pushed to change the QB roster policies ahead of the 2023 season, and ultimately denied by the NFL.